Section
Markets
Market mechanics that move portfolio revenue: Polish balancing, German negative prices, European intraday.
What intraday liquidity is worth to a renewable portfolio
Answers: When is it worth trading intraday instead of accepting imbalance settlement?
Intraday markets earn most of their value for a renewable portfolio by correcting day-ahead forecast errors close to delivery, and much less by trading price spreads. A framework for the intraday-versus-imbalance decision, and where it stops working.
Negative price exposure in German renewable portfolios
Answers: How much of a German PV and wind portfolio's value is lost to negative price hours?
Why the hour count of negative prices understates what they cost a German wind or PV portfolio, why the answer depends entirely on the contract stack, and how to frame the exposure before any number is put on it.
How the Polish balancing market changes realized value per MWh
Answers: How does the Polish balancing market affect what a renewable portfolio earns per MWh?
On the Polish market, the cost of a forecast error is set by the spread between the day-ahead price and the balancing price, and that spread is asymmetric. Why forecast accuracy is a misleading KPI for a Polish renewable portfolio, and what nomination strategy should weight instead.
